Provincial Election numbers?

Contributed by Pstreet News. The provincial election is fast upon us, and there is a great battle between the Liberals and the up and coming NDP. With Suze Morrison stepping aside for Kristyn Wong-Tam.

Up until the last election, this riding has almost always been Liberal. The liberals in Ontario got badly beaten, as we all know. And now, with KWT at the table will the weight she carries at the city level be enough? Hard to tell, especially with a proven candidate like David Morris.

In the last city election, KWT got just over 50% of the vote representing 15000 voters in the ward. Suze Morisson got 23,688 votes in 2018 a 37% positive swing in the NDP’s favour from 2014. The Liberals lost 30% of their popular vote from 2014. So roughly speaking, 30% of the popular vote is in play or approximately 13000 votes.

In the last federal and provincial elections, only 24,000 votes have won the day, tracking at 53%. What is more astounding is the federal and provincial elections over the last 10 or 12 years, including the bi-election, an average of 76% of all voters voted NDP and Liberal in Toronto Centre.

If we assume that 76% of the vote went evenly to the Liberals and NDP (17,000 votes each), NDP and Liberals would both have 38% of the popular vote. That 38% would represent a negative swing for the NDP of -15% of the popular vote from 2018. In contrast, the 38% for liberals would show an 11% gain in the popular vote. So in a riding where both parties had massive swings, good and bad,  there is bound to be some bounce back and regression or is there? The NDP and the Liberals both have great ground game and it is going to come down to the wire.

Without predicting who, I will suggest it will be very close within 2% or 880 votes.

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