Provincial Election numbers?

Contributed by Pstreet News. The provincial election is fast upon us, and there is a great battle between the Liberals and the up and coming NDP. With Suze Morrison stepping aside for Kristyn Wong-Tam.

Up until the last election, this riding has almost always been Liberal. The liberals in Ontario got badly beaten, as we all know. And now, with KWT at the table will the weight she carries at the city level be enough? Hard to tell, especially with a proven candidate like David Morris.

In the last city election, KWT got just over 50% of the vote representing 15000 voters in the ward. Suze Morisson got 23,688 votes in 2018 a 37% positive swing in the NDP’s favour from 2014. The Liberals lost 30% of their popular vote from 2014. So roughly speaking, 30% of the popular vote is in play or approximately 13000 votes.

In the last federal and provincial elections, only 24,000 votes have won the day, tracking at 53%. What is more astounding is the federal and provincial elections over the last 10 or 12 years, including the bi-election, an average of 76% of all voters voted NDP and Liberal in Toronto Centre.

If we assume that 76% of the vote went evenly to the Liberals and NDP (17,000 votes each), NDP and Liberals would both have 38% of the popular vote. That 38% would represent a negative swing for the NDP of -15% of the popular vote from 2018. In contrast, the 38% for liberals would show an 11% gain in the popular vote. So in a riding where both parties had massive swings, good and bad,  there is bound to be some bounce back and regression or is there? The NDP and the Liberals both have great ground game and it is going to come down to the wire.

Without predicting who, I will suggest it will be very close within 2% or 880 votes.

TwitterGoogle+FacebookLinkedInDiggStumbleUponBlogger PostDeliciousShare

Other News


System is Failing Seniors

Contributed by David Morris - The COVID-19 Pandemic Revealed Our System is Failing Seniors, Ontario Liberals Have a Plan to Fix It The COVID-19 pandemic has touched the lives of every Ontarian. We … [Read More...]

PSN kwt copy

Dear residents and neighbours

Contributed by Kristyn Wong-Tam - It is with great humility that I am running in the upcoming election to represent you as your NDP Toronto Centre champion at Queen’s Park! As your local City … [Read More...]

MPP Job Description

Contributed by George Smitherman, MPP representing Toronto Centre – Rosedale, Toronto Centre in the 34th, 35th and 36th Parliament (1999-2010) Position: Member of the Ontario Legislature Employer: … [Read More...]


Provincial Election numbers?

Contributed by Pstreet News. The provincial election is fast upon us, and there is a great battle between the Liberals and the up and coming NDP. With Suze Morrison stepping aside for Kristyn … [Read More...]


Brigaldara Soave DOC

Contributed by Isabel Wai, Brand Associate, Rogers & Company In the 2000s, Stefano Cesari and his sons, Lamberto and Antonio, initiated a profound renewal at Brigaldara. Today, the estate covers … [Read More...]


Forsythia Festival Thanks

THANK YOU The organizers of the Forsythia Festival would like to thank all the volunteers and sponsors for a long overdue and great day! Financial Donors Meridian Daniel et Daniel Catering & … [Read More...]


What Are We Planning for the Gardens

For the last two growing seasons we have not been able to be in the gardens with the children so we are excited to be planning in person programs for the children and after what felt like the longest … [Read More...]



Local residents and Real Estate agents Norman Hathaway and Anita Bostok of introduce us to local Cabbagetown Shop keepers is their ongoing series "Getting to Know you". Cabbagetown … [Read More...]


My brother, Tony Brady

Contributed by Joanna Brady Schmida - When I was approached by Peter Lovering recently about an addendum to the article he was planning to write for the Parliament Street News, I was delighted. For … [Read More...]


Hello Beautiful Readers!!

Here we go again, another year of the Parliament Street News. This is our first edition of the year and it was a long winter. But, what says spring better than the Forsythia Festival. After missing … [Read More...]



Winter Draws to a Close, Spring beckons, the sap is running! Contributed by The Cabbagetown BIA It’s been another long, cold winter, with the odd tease of balmy weather to come. Dire and traumatic … [Read More...]


Thoughts from Kyiv 

Contributed by Professor Mychailo Wynnyckyj in Kyiv. He and his family are in hiding, writing and fighting from a safe(r) house outside Kyiv - Yesterday’s bombing of the maternity hospital in Mariupol … [Read More...]


Walter Huston 1884 – 1950

Academy Award-winning Actor - Contributed by Walter Huston was born in Toronto where his father was a building contractor. He attended Wellesley, Ryerson and Lansdowne … [Read More...]